Yesterday, we awoke to a temperature which was still in negative territory of -1° but with the prospect, after a cloudy start, of some clearer skies later in the day and temperatures that may well arise. I think the whole of the country is anticipating what is meant to happen in a day or so when the temperature is scheduled to rise to as much as 12° but this may well be a one day wonder and presages the start of some wet and windy weather when a low moving in from the Atlantic edges up to a 'blocking high' which is sitting over eastern England and Northern Europe at the moment. Many eyes are focused on Europe in the next few days ahead as European society is having to cope with some profound changes in the political landscape. European political leaders are facing the fact that defence spending needs to rise quite dramatically to cope with the threat from Russia who, with the tacit assistance of President Trump, may well get away with the seizure of some 20% of the Ukraine. In geopolitical terms, since the fall of the Berlin wall on 9th November 1989 then the regimes of the countries of Western Europe have allowed the proportion of their GNP to drift downwards as they have faced the pressures of an ageing population with more monies needing to be spent on their healthcare. Advanced economies used to spend more than 3% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on military goals, up until 1991. This number was lowered to as much as 1.6% of GDP by 2015. Only after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, did the defence spending in Europe begin to rise, albeit not sharply on a general level. By 2019, Europe still was not investing a nominal 2% of GDP, which is mandatory under NATO rules. But we are now in a situation where the approximately 2.0-2.5 proportion of GNP needs to rise by anything from a quarter to a half and where is the money to come from? The UK is now alone in facing up to these dilemmas, but the stark choices boiled down to some, or some combination, of the following. The most painful is to cut our spending on the welfare services in order to increase defence expenditures whilst another alternative is to raise taxation. There are some who argue that taxation of all kinds is at an almost record high and raising taxes and cutting living standards is a quick path to electoral oblivion. A third alternative is to borrow the money if you can find any investors in the wider world willing to lend it to us and which will have to be ultimately repaid, adding in the meantime to servicing costs to pay the interest on the monies borrowed. It is no wonder that the finance chiefs of European societies may well be having some sleepless nights as they wonder where the money for increased defence is to come from and how this need for extra money is to be sold to their respective electorates. Keir Starmer is both urging his European colleagues to spend more money on defence whilst also trying to persuade the Americans that they continue to provide a backdrop of support for a post Ukraine conflict world. As I am writing this blog, the 'Today' programme is discussing these very dilemmas, and I suspect that it is going to dominate our political agenda for the months ahead. The figure that is being bandied about is that some £9 billion of cuts needs to be undertaken which is the entire budget of our DEFRA ministry and cuts of some £17 billion are even being talked about. This cutting agenda falls into the lap of a Labour government and whether or not they will be supported by the right-wing parties (Conservatives, Reform) is an interesting question. The Conservatives look on current trends, as though they may be eclipsed on the right by the Reform (ex UKIP) party and the next local elections at the start of April will be the very first occasion when we can see whether these opinion poll forecasts are turned into actual votes on the ground.
Although we knew the outside temperature was on the cold side, the skies cleared somewhat, and so Meg and I set forth just at 10.00am to walk down the hill for the first time for a week and we first called in at Waitrose to collect our newspaper. In the store where we are so well known, the staff greeted Meg warmly although she was only half awake and one of the wonderfully friendly partners pressed a bunch of a dozen red roses into our hands (left over from Valentine's day, no doubt) and then we made onwards to Wetherspoons where we had our by now traditional freshly prepared egg and bacon breakfast crumpet with a perpetual cup of drinking chocolate for £2.77. We met up with our two friends and I shared them my tales of woe concerning lost iPhones and delayed direct debits before we had to leave quite early to make sure we were home by 11.30. Fortunately, whatever wind there was blew from behind us on the way home so did not distress us, Meg's normal sit of two hours on a Tuesday had been retimed but we told the agency to forget about the first hour (as we would be out) and to have the young carer, who we know and like very much, to just sit for the second hour. Then between us, we hatched up a plot which will play out as follows. Having prepared the roses and divided the roses into two bunches of six, I gave one of them to the young female carer and told her to tell her long term boyfriend (who is also one of Meg's carers and coincidentally calling round tomorrow) to say that she had received the roses from a secret admirer and they had been left on her car windscreen. Then tomorrow, I am going to casually ask if either of them had received any Valentine's gifts last Friday and then the young female carer and I are going to keep a straight face whilst I ask my questions in all innocence and then observe the reactions. I did enjoin upon the young female carer to 'fess up' if there was the slightest indication that the boyfriend was becoming jealous or upset in these little transactions, but we will not have long to wait to see how it all plays out. Just before a lunch I had made a Mike style risotto (made with half a pack of mackerel), the firm appointed by the house insurance to oversee and commission the redecoration work after the leak we had about a month ago piad us a visit. The firm itself is a family firm and the absolute model of professionalism, exuding a lot of confidence about how they are to engage in their stage of the process but one feature that I really liked to see was a sheet containing the colour photographs and contact details of each member of the firm with whom one might need to interact. What a brilliantly simple idea (the policy of the founder of the firm) and one that bodes well. In the fullness of time, I will have to pay a fairly hefty excess but that from point of time onwards, the all the repair and redecoration costs will be borne by the insurance company.
© Mike Hart [2025]